Indonesia has officially blocked access to crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket after controversial betting markets emerged around President Prabowo Subianto and speculation over his possible early exit from office.
The move comes amid growing concerns from Indonesian authorities over online gambling, political speculation, and the rapid rise of decentralized prediction markets across Asia.
Indonesia Cracks Down on Prediction Markets
Indonesia’s Communications and Digital Ministry confirmed the ban this week, saying Polymarket violated national laws related to online gambling and speculative betting. Officials stated the platform allowed users to wager on uncertain political outcomes, which authorities classified as illegal gambling activity under Indonesian law.
The controversy intensified after a Polymarket market asked users to predict when Prabowo would be “out as president,” despite his current presidential term running until 2029.
The political betting market quickly spread across Indonesian social media, triggering heated debate among government supporters, investors, and crypto communities. Authorities reportedly began reviewing social media accounts connected to the platform shortly after the market gained traction online.
Why the Prabowo Exit Bets Sparked Outrage
The timing of the prediction market fuelled even more controversy.
The wager reportedly launched just one day after Prabowo announced plans to centralize Indonesia’s commodity export controls, including major sectors such as coal and palm oil. The proposed policy raised concerns among investors and business groups already watching Indonesia’s economic direction closely in 2026.
Critics argued that the market encouraged political instability and speculative narratives surrounding the Indonesian presidency. Supporters of decentralized platforms, however, claimed prediction markets simply reflect public sentiment and collective forecasting rather than direct political attacks.
Prediction markets have increasingly become popular worldwide because they allow users to trade on future outcomes involving politics, sports, crypto prices, elections, and global events.
What Is Polymarket?
Founded in 2020, Polymarket is one of the world’s largest blockchain-powered prediction market platforms. Users can place trades using cryptocurrency on whether specific events will happen in the future. Markets often cover elections, financial events, wars, entertainment, and sports.
The platform operates globally and has gained massive popularity during major political cycles, especially in the United States and crypto communities. Polymarket describes itself as a platform that converts public opinion into real-time probability markets.
However, regulators in multiple countries have challenged the legality of prediction markets. Several jurisdictions argue these platforms resemble unlicensed gambling operations because users profit financially from uncertain outcomes.
Indonesia now joins a growing list of countries with increasing scrutiny on crypto prediction platforms.
Crypto Regulation and Political Betting Under Pressure
Indonesia has maintained strict laws against gambling for years, including online betting activities. The country has also intensified efforts to combat illegal digital gambling platforms throughout 2025 and 2026.
The Polymarket ban highlights a wider regulatory conflict emerging globally between decentralized crypto platforms and traditional government oversight. While blockchain-based prediction markets continue attracting users worldwide, regulators remain concerned about consumer protection, political manipulation, and speculative risks.
Industry analysts say the Indonesian crackdown could influence how other Southeast Asian governments approach prediction markets moving forward.
At the same time, supporters of decentralized finance argue that prediction markets provide valuable crowd-sourced forecasting tools and real-time public sentiment analysis.
Despite the criticism, platforms like Polymarket continue expanding rapidly across global crypto markets, especially as mainstream wallets and Web3 ecosystems integrate prediction trading features.
