CryptoQuant’s latest on-chain analysis suggests Ethereum has entered a historically attractive valuation zone, although several key indicators that marked previous market bottoms have yet to confirm a full reversal.
Ethereum is trading below its realized price a metric widely used to estimate the average on-chain acquisition cost of circulating ETH but CryptoQuant says investors should not assume the current market has already reached its cycle bottom. According to the firm’s latest market analysis published on July 23, Ethereum is approximately 17% below its realized price, placing the asset in a valuation range that has historically coincided with long-term accumulation periods. However, only two of five historical bottom indicators currently show conditions similar to previous market lows.
CryptoQuant summarized its findings in a post published on its verified X account, stating: “Ethereum is cheap, but the data says the bottom isn’t in yet.” The company added that selling pressure has eased, but signs of broad market capitulation remain absent.
Ethereum Realized Price Points to Historical Undervaluation
The realized price represents the average cost basis of all ETH currently held on-chain. Historically, Ethereum trading below this level has often occurred during prolonged bear-market phases before stronger recoveries developed.
According to CryptoQuant, Ethereum’s realized price is near $2,300, while ETH has recently traded roughly 17% below that level. The firm argues this places Ethereum within the lower half of its historical realized-price valuation band, a zone that has previously coincided with attractive long-term entry points rather than overheated market conditions.
Unlike conventional technical indicators, realized price reflects blockchain transaction history rather than market sentiment alone, making it a widely followed on-chain valuation metric.
Only Two of Five Historical Bottom Indicators Have Confirmed
Despite Ethereum’s discounted valuation, CryptoQuant cautioned that the broader evidence remains incomplete.
Its analysis identifies five historical indicators that have typically aligned with major market bottoms. So far, only two have reached levels comparable with previous cycle lows.
Among the improving metrics cited by the firm are:
- Ethereum’s market value relative to realized value (MVRV) has cooled substantially from previous overvaluation levels.
- ETH/BTC spot trading volume has declined into ranges that historically appeared near important turning points.
- Exchange inflows have moderated, suggesting reduced immediate selling pressure.
- ETF holdings have begun stabilizing after months of weakness.
However, the remaining indicators have not yet reached the extreme readings that characterized previous bear-market bottoms. According to CryptoQuant, this suggests the current recovery phase may still be incomplete.
On-chain Fundamentals Continue Improving
Beyond valuation metrics, Ethereum’s broader network fundamentals have shown gradual improvement.
CryptoQuant noted that exchange balances continue to decline as more ETH moves into self-custody and staking. Lower exchange reserves generally reduce the immediately available supply that could be sold into the market, although they do not guarantee higher prices.
The firm also highlighted increasing staking participation, with roughly one-third of Ethereum’s circulating supply locked in staking according to its analysis. Continued staking growth reduces liquid supply while strengthening Ethereum’s proof-of-stake network.
Institutional positioning has also shown tentative signs of recovery. CryptoQuant observed that ETF-related Ethereum holdings have begun improving after several months of relative weakness, although institutional demand remains below levels typically associated with sustained bull-market momentum.
Why The Analysis Matters
The report arrives as investors continue searching for evidence that Ethereum has completed its correction relative to Bitcoin.
Historically, trading below realized price has often identified periods of undervaluation rather than immediate trend reversals. Previous market cycles demonstrated that assets can remain below realized price for extended periods before establishing durable bottoms.
CryptoQuant therefore distinguishes between valuation and confirmation. While valuation metrics suggest Ethereum has become comparatively inexpensive on a historical basis, confirmation of a completed market bottom requires broader evidence, including stronger demand, deeper seller exhaustion and wider alignment across multiple on-chain indicators.
Risks and Uncertainties Remain
CryptoQuant’s analysis is based primarily on historical blockchain behaviour rather than predictive forecasting.
Macroeconomic conditions, monetary policy, spot ETF flows, regulatory developments and broader investor risk appetite could all influence Ethereum’s future performance independently of on-chain valuation metrics.
The absence of widespread capitulation also leaves open the possibility that additional downside volatility could occur before a durable market bottom is established. For that reason, CryptoQuant stops short of declaring that Ethereum has completed its correction despite improving underlying data.
What to Watch Next
Market participants will likely monitor whether the remaining three historical bottom indicators move into ranges previously associated with major reversals.
Analysts will also be watching ETF flows, exchange reserve trends, staking participation and Ethereum’s position relative to its realized price. A sustained move back above realized price has historically strengthened the case that long-term accumulation is transitioning into a broader recovery, although no single indicator has consistently predicted every market cycle.
